Lancaster-Warwick-Stirling node

Research projects are identified as Phase 1 projects (2005-2008) or Phase 2 projects (2008-2011). Follow the links for more information.

Modelling patterns in longitudinal criminal careers (Francis, Soothill, Ackerley, Humphreys)

Can we identify offence patterning - that is, offences which are committed at the same point of an offender's criminal history? How do such patterns change over time? Can we identify generational effects? Is there evidence of patterns in serious offences? Statistical methods involve the development of dynamic latent class analysis models to represent changes over age.

Measuring offence seriousness (Francis, Soothill, Humphreys)

This research is investigating various methods for assessing offence seriousness- that is, the seriousness level of an average offence of a particular type. We contrast several different approaches, including average length of custodial sentence and a bilinear modelling approach. This is a crucial component to enable researchers to measure degrees of escalation through the criminal lifecourse. It is also recognised that offence seriousness changes both according to location and according to time.

Modelling length of criminal careers (Francis, Soothill, Ackerley)

Assessing the length of a criminal career and the factors which influence length is problematic. The statistical problem is that all data is censored; we can never be sure that offending has ceased. Basing an analysis on conviction data and making a judgement that is conviction-free

Serious offending (Francis, Soothill, Ackerley, Liu)

How dangerous are unusual serious crimes such as blackmail, arson and kidnapping? If an offender issues a threat to kill, how likely are they to carry it out?

Changing patterns of recorded crime in space and time (Diggle, Kaimi)

How can we model reported crime and its changes over time and space? Can we identify shifts in hotspots of crime over time? more...

Lifestyle specialisation in offending (Francis, Liu, Soothill)

Can we measure the short-term specialisation of offending at various points in time over the life course? How do offenders transit between one offending lifestyle and another? Do offenders become more or less specialised over time?

Criminal escalation in offence seriousness (Francis, Liu, Soothill)

Can we measure the short-term specialisation of offending at various points in time over the life course? How do offenders transit between one offending lifestyle and another? Do offenders become more or less specialised over time?

White collar crime (Soothill, Humphreys)

What is the risk of a white-collar offender being reconvicted? do we have different profiles of re-offending for different offences? Is there a difference between white-collar offenders being convicted of white collar crimes, and those convicted of violent offences? When does the re-conviction experience of white collar offenders become like that of the general population?

The book project (Soothill, Francis)

This book disseminates recent research and concepts of the criminal career approach to criminological problems.